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内容简介
《中国沿海海平面变化影响评估》基于近50年的海平面变化观（监）测数据、近10年的海平面变化影响调查信息以及高精度基础地理信息数据等，采用科学合理的技术方法，综合研判中国沿海地区的海平面变化及其影响状况事实，深入开展了海平面变化和极端气候事件的成因机制及预测研究，在此基础上重点针对不同海平面上升情景下淹没风险、海岸带脆弱性、海岸侵蚀、风暴潮和工程设计等进行了中国沿海及典型示范区的专题影响评估，并提出了科学应对海平面上升的策略，希望能为国家和地区社会经济可持续性发展提供决策参考。
目录
第一篇 海平面变化事实、归因及预测
综 述 ·············································································· 2
第1章 海平面变化事实分析 ····································································· 3
1.1 海平面变化观测 ········································································ 3
1.2 海平面变化事实 ···················································································· 4
1.2.1 全球及区域海平面变化 ·································································· 4
1.2.2 中国沿海海平面变化 ····································································· 6
1.3 海平面变化归因 ···················································································13
1.3.1 全球海平面变化归因 ····································································13
1.3.2 中国海平面变化归因 ····································································14
第2章 未来海平面上升预测 ····································································20
2.1 统计预测 ············································································20
2.1.1 预测方法 ···················································································20
2.1.2 预测结果 ···················································································22
2.2 数值模型预测 ············································································25
2.2.1 模型和气候情景 ·····································································25
2.2.2 数据集构建 ·········································································26
2.2.3 模型评估 ·············································································27
2.2.4 预测结果 ············································································29
第3章 典型潮汐特征变化 ·······································································33
3.1 主要分潮振幅长期变化 ···································································38
3.1.1 M2和S2分潮 ················································································38
3.1.2 K1和O1分潮 ················································································40
3.1.3 Sa和Ssa分潮 ·················································································43
3.2 主要潮汐特征值 ·······································································45
3.2.1 平均高潮位 ················································································45
3.2.2 平均低潮位 ················································································47
3.2.3 平均潮差 ···········································································48
第4章 极端事件 ············································································50
4.1 极端大风 ········································································50
4.2 增减水 ····················································································51
4.2.1 增减水长期变化 ··········································································51
4.2.2 斜风暴潮 ···················································································56
4.3 极值水位 ··············································································60
4.3.1 极值水位长期变化 ·······································································60
4.3.2 极值水位预测 ·············································································62
4.3.3 重现期极值水位 ··········································································64
4.4 波浪 ··············································································69
4.4.1 波浪变化事实 ······································································69
4.4.2 水位-波高联合分布 ·····································································71
第二篇 中国沿海海平面变化影响状况
综 述 ···········································································78
第5章 海岸带灾害 ········································································80
5.1 风暴潮灾害 ·············································································80
5.1.1 风暴潮灾害特征 ··········································································80
5.1.2 海平面上升与风暴潮 ····································································84
5.2 海岸侵蚀 ···············································································89
5.3 海水入侵与土壤盐渍化 ··································································93
5.3.1 海水入侵与土壤盐渍化分布特征 ·····················································94
5.3.2 典型区域海水入侵变化特征 ·····················································96
5.4 咸潮入侵 ············································································98
5.5 滨海城市洪涝 ······································································ 102
第6章 海岸防护工程 ··································································· 105
6.1 我国海堤现状 ··········································································· 105
6.1.1 我国海堤现状 ··································································· 105
6.1.2 海平面上升与海堤 ······································································111
6.2 我国生态海堤现状 ······································································ 114
第7章 滨海生态系统 ··································································· 118
7.1 滨海湿地 ········································································ 118
7.1.1 我国滨海湿地分布概况 ······························································· 118
7.1.2 海平面上升对滨海湿地的影响 ······················································ 121
7.2 红树林 ··········································································· 123
7.2.1 我国红树林分布概况 ·································································· 123
7.2.2 海平面上升对红树林的影响 ························································· 123
7.3 海草床 ···································································· 125
第三篇 海平面上升影响专题评估
综 述 ·········································································· 128
第8章 海平面上升淹没风险评估 ··························································· 129
8.1 数据来源 ······································································· 129
8.2 评估方法 ········································································· 129
8.3 评估场景 ··········································································· 130
8.4 影响评估 ············································································ 131
8.4.1 影响区域 ··································································· 131
8.4.2 社会经济影响 ····································································· 138
第9章 海岸带脆弱性评估 ···························································· 164
9.1 数据来源 ······································································ 164
9.2 海岸带脆弱性评估方法 ···································································· 164
9.2.1 指标体系 ······································································ 164
9.2.2 评估模型 ········································································ 166
9.3 海岸带脆弱性评估及区划 ································································ 167
9.3.1 海岸带脆弱性评估 ····································································· 167
9.3.2 脆弱性区划 ·············································································· 171
第10章 海岸侵蚀评估 ·········································································· 179
10.1 数据来源 ········································································ 179
10.2 海岸侵蚀评估方法 ································································· 179
10.2.1 海岸侵蚀脆弱性评估 ······························································· 179
10.2.2 海平面上升与海岸侵蚀 ···························································· 181
10.3 情景 ·········································································· 183
10.4 海岸侵蚀影响评估 ····································································· 186
10.4.1 全国海岸侵蚀脆弱性评估 ························································· 186
10.4.2 海岸侵蚀个例研究 ····························································· 192
第11章 示范区（深圳市）风暴潮影响评估 ··········································· 218
11.1 数据来源 ········································································ 218
11.2 评估方法 ······································································· 222
11.3 气候情景 ······································································· 227
11.4 影响评估 ··········································································· 227
11.4.1 风暴潮模拟 ······································································ 227
11.4.2 影响区域 ········································································· 234
11.4.3 城市安全影响 ··································································· 237
第12章 海岸工程影响评估 ····························································· 246
12.1 沿海堤防防护标准影响评估 ·························································· 246
12.1.1 海堤防护标准现状 ···························································· 246
12.1.2 海堤防护标准影响评估 ······················································· 246
12.2 对典型工程的影响 ·································································· 256
12.2.1 对防洪排涝工程的影响 ···························································· 256
12.2.2 对港口与码头工程的影响 ························································· 256
12.2.3 对核电工程的影响 ··························································· 257
第四篇 海平面上升应对策略
综 述 ······································································· 260
第13章 海平面上升应对策略 ··························································· 261
13.1 完善政策法规与管理机制 ································································ 261
13.2 加强海平面业务体系能力建设 ························································ 261
13.3 科学评估与规划 ································································ 262
13.4 提升沿岸工程防护能力 ································································· 263
13.5 推进海岸带整治修复 ··································································· 263
13.6 加强国际合作，参与全球治理 ······················································· 264
13.7 强化教育宣传与公众参与 ··························································· 264
参考文献········································································ 265
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